Wohin Deutschland?

Well the voting is over (except for Dresden) and the bottom line is, nobody won! The SPD did far better overall than every analyst has predicted since June, the CDU/CSU did worse than expected even in some of their stronghold areas of the country (for example, Edward Stoiber and the CSU posted their worse results in Bavaria ever) and die Linke.PDS did better in some parts of the east than in their wildest dreams. Neither of the two big parties garnered enough seats in the Bundestag to form a functional coalition with their respective preferred coalition partners (that would be die Grüne/Bündnis 90 for the SPD and the FDP for the CDU/CSU). Technically speaking, at this point, Merkel and the CDU/CSU “won”, that is to say they ended up with about 1% more of the popular vote and 3 more seats in the Bundestag than Schröder and the SPD, but word on the German street is that Angela and her party were really the big losers and Schröder is certainly acting like the victor.

Let’s look at some actual election results from Düsseldorf. In Wahlklreis 107 (Düsseldorf 1), the final tally was CDU/CSU 35.4 % ; SPD 33.7 % ; FDP 14.2%; die Grüne 9.6% ; and die Linke.PDS 4.8%. In Wahlkreis 108 (Düsseldorf 2) the results were a little bit redder: CDU/CSU 32.2% ; SPD 38.8 % ; FDP 10.5 %; die Grüne 9.6%; and die Linke.PDS 5.9%.

Overall in Germany the results looked like this: CDU/CSU 35.2%; SPD 34.3%; FDP 9.8%; die Grüne 8.1%; die Linke.PDS 8.7%; other parties ( includes NPD) 3.9%. Only parties with 5% of the popular vote (Zweitstimmen) or more are permitted seats in the Bundestag (this regulation is known as the Fünf-Prozent-Hürde, or Fünf-Prozent-Klausel), so for example, the far-right NPD has no representation at the national level.

So what is going to happen? Who will govern Germany? Nobody knows! Clearly some sort of coalition, and not the usual ones, will be needed and analysts are putting their money on a grand coalition of the SPD/CDU, a so-called schwarz-röt coalition. In fact, Schröder and Merkel are set to meet today to “discuss” their options. The problem is neither of them is willing to not be chancellor. Merkel is saying that as her party (with its sister party the Bavarian based CSU) got the most votes and the most seats in the Bundestag, the vox populi dictates that they should form a government with Merkel at the helm. Schröder is insisting that the poor showing of the Union (the German term for the combined CDU/CSU) and the relatively good performance of the SPD indicates that the German people want him to continue on as Chancellor and complete some form of the Harz IV and Agenda 2010 reforms. SPD officials are also now claiming that, in fact, the CDU and CSU are two separate parties and thus, neither did as well as the SPD which is the de facto majority party in the Bundestag! This in spite of the fact that since the end of WW II, everyone in Germany has viewed the CDU/CSU grouping as a single party.

What may yet happen is that one of the more outré coalition possibilities may yet emerge victorious such as the “Schwampel” or “Jamaica” coalition of CDU/FDP/die Grüne (black,/yellow/green) or the “Ampel” coalition of SPD/FDP/die Grüne (red/yellow/green). What everyone is saying is that no party wants to talk with die Linke.PDS and Gysi and LaFontaine (leaders of die Linke) have also emphatically stated that they will not serve in government with anybody.

Troubling times indeed in the world of German politics! Stay tuned!