Rot-Gruen geht unter!

This past week saw two important elections in Europe (well, one election and one referendum) the results of which will loom large for Germans, all Europeans and essentially everybody else!

First, in the German Land (state) of North-Rhine Westphalia (capital-Düsseldorf) the SPD (Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands) and their coalition partner die Grüne (the Greens) were soundly defeated by the more conservative, CDU (Christlich-Demokratische Union). The SPD has ruled in this, the most populous and most heavily industrialized of the German Länder since 1966 and their defeat here does not bode well for Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and his SPD- Grüne coalition that is currently running the country in Berlin. Der Bundeskanzler has, in fact, called for an early national election for this September 18 (a year earlier than originally planned) in the hope of retaining a majority in the Bundestag against his main foes the CDU led by Angela Merkel and their Bavarian sister party, the CSU (Christlich-Soziale Union). In spite of their names, the CDU and CSU are not religious parties but are somewhat analogous to our Republican party in the USA while the SPD corresponds to the Democrats (these are rough analogies).

The principal reasons for der Untergang (downfall) of the SPD in North-Rhine Westphalia seem to stem mainly from voter discontent and anxiety over the German economy which, after decades of increasingly powerful performance (the so-called post-World War Two Wirtschaftswunder [economic miracle]) has recently been taking a serious beating. Economic growth is Germany is the slowest in all of the EU countries and unemployment in Germany as a whole is up to around 12% (something over 5 million arbeitslose [unemployed]). This is the highest it has been since 1945 and in some parts of the former DDR (East Germany) it is higher still. At least a portion of this economic distress is due to the extremely high cost of German reunification. Beginning immediately after die Einheit, the government of then Chancellor Helmut Kohl (CDU) and all subsequent governments in Berlin poured hundreds of billions of dollars into the crumbling infrastructure of the former Communist East Germany. Schröder and the SPD have been pushing two sets of economic reforms, Hartz IV and Agenda 2010 and there is considerable public unhappiness with what these plans would involve. Changes would be instituted in the incredibly potent social safety net in Germany—unemployment, health care, education and other social benefits that Germans have become accustomed to as the payback from their government for their (by American standards) incredibly high income tax rates would be cut. This summer, you will definitely be hearing from your German friends and hosts about their feelings on Hartz IV, the German economic slowdown, and what the fall election may bring.